Publications
"Offside Urban Echoes: Exploring the Spatial Dynamics of Soccer and Crime in Medellin" Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, Catalina Gomez-Toro and Joaquin A. Urrego. Journal of Sports Economics (2025).
Abstract: The emotions elicited by soccer matches, combined with the large crowds they draw, create an environment conducive to criminal activity. This article examines how significant sporting events, such as soccer matches, influence various types of crime in Medellin, a city historically associated with high crime rates. We use a Spatial Difference in Differences approach, alongside a policy change that imposed stricter access controls to the stadium, to assess soccer matches' spatial and temporal impacts on crime. Our findings reveal large heterogeneity across different types of crime, spatial reach, and temporal displacements. Physical altercations and auto theft are the most responsive to sporting events, effects that are mitigated after the implementation of stricter attendance regulations.
"Are city centers losing their appeal? Commercial real estate, urban spatial structure, and COVID-19" Stuart S. Rosenthal, William C. Strange and Joaquin A. Urrego. Journal of Urban Economics (2022).
Abstract: This paper estimates the value firms place on access to city centers and how this has changed with COVID-19. Pre-COVID, across 89 U.S. urban areas, commercial rent on newly executed long-term leases declines 2.3% per mile from the city center and increases 8.4% with a doubling of zipcode employment density. These relationships are stronger for large, dense “transit cities” that rely heavily on subway and light rail. Post-COVID, the commercial rent gradient falls by roughly 15% in transit cities, and the premium for proximity to transit stops also falls. We do not see a corresponding decline in the commercial rent gradient in more car-oriented cities, but for all cities the rent premium associated with employment density declines sharply following the COVID-19 shock.
"Civil Conflict and Conditional Cash Transfers: Effects on demobilization" Paola Peña, Juan M. Villa and Joaquin A. Urrego. World Development (2017).
Abstract: Cash transfer programs have been successful in helping millions of people afford better livelihoods. While this is well known, little research has yet been conducted to examine the power of such programs to influence outcomes in times of conflict, especially in countries where anti-poverty programs are implemented amidst disputes against illegal armed groups. This paper focuses on the implementation of Familias en Accion, a flagship anti-poverty cash transfer program in Colombia, during the early 2000s when the country was still experiencing its long-lasting internal conflict. Impact evaluations have already shown the important effects of this program on household poverty levels and children’s time allocation, including a higher incidence of school attendance and a lower incidence of child labor. Our hypothesis here is that such outcomes imply changes in the dynamics of the civil conflict, since 50% of the demobilised combatants are children mostly eligible for the transfers. We take advantage of a natural experiment that occurred during the first stage of implementation of the program in the period 2001–04 when the transfers were gradually rolled out across eligible municipalities. By setting out a difference-in-differences approach, our results indicate that the program had positive effects on the demobilisation of combatants. These findings are observed for a length of three years since the program started.