Publications

"Offside Urban Echoes: Exploring the Spatial Dynamics of Soccer and Crime in Medellin" Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, Catalina Gomez-Toro and Joaquin A. Urrego.  Journal of Sports Economics (2025).

Abstract: The emotions elicited by soccer matches, combined with the large crowds they draw, create an environment conducive to criminal activity. This article examines how significant sporting events, such as soccer matches, influence various types of crime in Medellin, a city historically associated with high crime rates. We use a Spatial Difference in Differences approach, alongside a policy change that imposed stricter access controls to the stadium, to assess soccer matches' spatial and temporal impacts on crime. Our findings reveal large heterogeneity across different types of crime, spatial reach, and temporal displacements. Physical altercations and auto theft are the most responsive to sporting events, effects that are mitigated after the implementation of stricter attendance regulations.

"Are city centers losing their appeal? Commercial real estate, urban spatial structure, and COVID-19" Stuart S. Rosenthal, William C. Strange and Joaquin A. Urrego. Journal of Urban Economics (2022). 

Abstract: This paper estimates the value firms place on access to city centers and how this has changed with COVID-19. Pre-COVID, across 89 U.S. urban areas, commercial rent on newly executed long-term leases declines 2.3% per mile from the city center and increases 8.4% with a doubling of zipcode employment density. These relationships are stronger for large, dense “transit cities” that rely heavily on subway and light rail. Post-COVID, the commercial rent gradient falls by roughly 15% in transit cities, and the premium for proximity to transit stops also falls. We do not see a corresponding decline in the commercial rent gradient in more car-oriented cities, but for all cities the rent premium associated with employment density declines sharply following the COVID-19 shock.

"Civil Conflict and Conditional Cash Transfers: Effects on demobilization" Paola Peña, Juan M. Villa and Joaquin A. Urrego. World Development (2017).

Abstract: Cash transfer programs have been successful in helping millions of people afford better livelihoods. While this is well known, little research has yet been conducted to examine the power of such programs to influence outcomes in times of conflict, especially in countries where anti-poverty programs are implemented amidst disputes against illegal armed groups. This paper focuses on the implementation of Familias en Accion, a flagship anti-poverty cash transfer program in Colombia, during the early 2000s when the country was still experiencing its long-lasting internal conflict. Impact evaluations have already shown the important effects of this program on household poverty levels and children’s time allocation, including a higher incidence of school attendance and a lower incidence of child labor. Our hypothesis here is that such outcomes imply changes in the dynamics of the civil conflict, since 50% of the demobilised combatants are children mostly eligible for the transfers. We take advantage of a natural experiment that occurred during the first stage of implementation of the program in the period 2001–04 when the transfers were gradually rolled out across eligible municipalities. By setting out a difference-in-differences approach, our results indicate that the program had positive effects on the demobilisation of combatants. These findings are observed for a length of three years since the program started.

Working Papers

"In-situ Upgrading or Population Relocation? Direct Impacts and Spatial Spillovers of Slum Renewal Policies" Paul Gertler, Marco Gonzalez-Navarro, Raimundo Undurraga and Joaquin A. Urrego

[Blog: Economics That Really Matters]

Abstract: Urban planners often face two main options for slum policy: remedying slum infrastructure and housing needs (in-situ upgrading) or offering affordable housing outside slums (population relocation). We examine and compare the effects of these interventions on (i) the physical characteristics of targeted slum areas, (ii) the socioeconomic profiles of slum residents, and (iii) spillover effects on nearby formal neighborhoods. Our analysis uses a unique slum-level panel dataset spanning over 20 years, covering the universe of slums in Chile. The panel incorporates satellite imagery, census data, administrative records, construction permits, crime reports, and property tax data. First, we document that slums tend to form on city peripheries and are later absorbed within city boundaries as urban areas expand. They typically emerge near low-skilled labor centers, with their growth correlating with improved labor market prospects for low-skilled workers and rising housing rents. Second, using Synthetic Difference-in-Difference for causal identification, we find that, on average, both policies reduce the share of land used for housing within the original slum perimeter —in-situ upgrading repurposes land for neighborhood infrastructure while population relocation reduces slum households and housing footprints. However, only in-situ upgrading leads to long-lasting increases in housing quality and socioeconomic status of residents. Moreover, in-situ upgrading generates significant positive spillovers in adjacent neighborhoods, reducing criminal activity and increasing formal housing investment.

"Eyes on the Street, Spatial Concentration of Retail Activity and Crime" Stuart S. Rosenthal and Joaquin A. Urrego. R&R - Regional Science and Urban Economics

Abstract: If spatial concentration of retail establishments amplifies the effect of “eyes on the street”, that should lower neighborhood crime rates and reduce investment in anti-crime measures, with benefits capitalized into higher retail rent. Data for New York City supports these predictions. In addition, comparisons between nighttime versus daytime crime, pre-pandemic versus COVID-19 lockdown, and different measures of spatial concentration shed light on mechanisms. Under plausible identifying conditions, increasing neighborhood concentration of retail outlets by one standard deviation reduces property crime and police stops by at least 8.5% and 11%, respectively, and causes retail rent to increase by at least 7.8%. 

"Perceptions of Police Bias and the Location of Minority-Owned Establishment" Joaquin A. Urrego. 

Abstract: This paper considers whether perceptions of police bias can have lasting adverse effects on minority-owned businesses even after evidence of police misconduct has diminished. Customers and workers are discouraged from conducting business in areas where they might feel unsafe. That in turn may hurt the profitability of minority-owned businesses in neighborhoods where concerns about police behavior are prevalent, reducing the presence of minority-owned establishments and their potential to thrive in such locations. Using data on police stops from the Stop-Question-Frisk policy in New York City, I find that minority-owned businesses are less present and exhibit higher exit rates in neighborhoods where perceptions of police bias are likely to be more pronounced. Differences in patterns by industry provide suggestive evidence that minority customers and workers are discouraged from locations where police behavior against minorities can be perceived as biased. 

"Moving Citizens and Deterring Criminals: Innovation in Public Transport  Facilities" Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, Juan Carlos Duque and Joaquin A. Urrego.

Abstract: In 2004, Medellin opened the first public transportation system based on cable cars (Metrocable) that reached isolated, dense neighborhoods. Using spatial difference-in-differences, causal mediation, and spatially disaggregated datasets, we estimate the effects of the Metrocable on crime and its mechanisms. Homicide decreased by 40% more in treated and adjacent neighborhoods between 2004 and 2006, while the reduction was 51% between 2004 and 2012. A third of the short-run effect and a quarter of the medium-run effect can be explained by improvements in the formal labor market and police efficiency.

Ongoing Projects

"Climate Change Uncertainty, Coastal Local Migration, and Urbanization" Juan Jose Miranda and Joaquin A. Urrego.

Abstract: Climate change is reshaping the future of cities. We study how climate change uncertainty affects local patterns of urbanization and migration. Cities offer agglomeration benefits that extend beyond labor markets and productivity, providing the physical and human capital to confront climate-related risks. Yet, high population densities and the tendency of urban centers to experience higher temperatures can intensify the consequences of climate shocks. We construct a panel dataset of urbanization and population at 5 km grid squares across Ecuador, Peru, and Chile, representing 90% of all South American Pacific coastal areas. Our findings reveal local migration as a response to extreme weather events, even within cities, indicating that migration as an adaptation strategy extends beyond traditional rural-to-urban patterns. Extreme precipitation events increase urbanization and population in highly urbanized areas while decreasing both in less urbanized locations. Cities likely attract populations exposed to flooding and other precipitation risks due to potential adaptation strategies. In the face of extreme temperatures, urbanization in highly built-up areas decreases by over 3 percentage points, while low-urbanized areas nearly double their original levels. Although individuals prefer less dense locations, agglomeration benefits from cities steer them toward less urbanized and agricultural zones within cities. These results suggest that cities remain attractive, but their expansion will depend on varying exposures to climate change events.

"The Cost of Crime in Mexico" Laura Chioda, Paul Gertler and Joaquin A. Urrego.  (draft coming soon)

Abstract: Between 2007 and 2014, more than 164,000 civilians were victims of homicide in Mexico. During the same period, roughly 103,000 civilians died in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars combined. These spikes in violence occurred during an intensification of large-scale efforts by the Mexican government to cripple organized crime by targeting its leadership, calling into question the efficacy of the so-called kingpin strategy. Exploiting information on the presence of cartels in municipalities and the locations of neutralizations of cartel operatives since 1995, we document the geographic and temporal spillovers of violence that result from power vacuums following the capture or killing of key drug cartel operatives. With access to high-frequency data on labor market outcomes, we then study the short and medium term impacts of the kingpin strategy on labor markets in the context of dynamic panel data models. The evidence suggests that neutralizations have large and persistent effects on the level of violence, as well as on earnings, hours worked, and quality of attachment to the labor force. Violence acts as a shock to the demand for low-skilled labor in the formal sector. Low-skill workers adjust by substituting into lower quality jobs; e.g., by joining the informal sector and working part-time.